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Episódio #13 – Educação na era digital

postado em Podcast - Economia Falada


Trechos da entrevista do economista Ricardo Amorim ao portal Quero Educação, jul/2019.
Por que o padrão educacional, estabelecido há anos, já não comporta a realidade atual da nossa sociedade digital e dos novos modelos de trabalho?
 

 
 



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A penny saved is a penny earned

postado em In English


07/2019

By Ricardo Amorim

 

 

If left without further changes, the Social Security Reform approved by the Lower Chamber of Congress will generate savings amounting to R$ 900 billion in the next ten years. The savings will grow in the following decades. After two decades it will amount to nearly R$ 4 trillion. Only to go on growing in the following decades.

 

To begin with, it will reduce the growth of the Social Security deficit. Adding up the Federal, States, municipal administrations and the INSS (Social Security System), the deficit will be of around R$ 400 billion this year. Without the reform it would be R$ 450 billion next year.

 

With less of a deficit in Social Security, less of the budget will be required to cover the deficit. In order to cover the Social Security deficit, investment in public education has been shrinking since 2013, investment in Health goes down every year since 2015, and public investment in infrastructure last year was the lowest in 70 years.

 

In time, the Social Security Reform will create the conditions to reverse this picture. Besides, it makes room for Brazil to promote a Tax Reform to simplify our tax system without having to increase the burden on taxpayers, as would be the case without the Social Security Reform.

 

No less essential, the Social Security Reform will revert the growth of the public debt. Without it, Brazil would endure a fiscal and economic crisis even worse than the last one.

 

The fiscal risk now at bay, businesses will pull their investment plans out of the drawer. With more investment we shall generate more jobs, income and economic growth.

 

Much of this investment will come from abroad, bringing in dollars and lowering the dollar exchange rate, which will reduce the price of imported products, collaborating to knock down inflation and creating the required environment for lowering interest rates and for more credit to be available.

 

In short, besides freeing resources to be invested in Health, Education and Infrastructure some time from now, the savings resulting from the Reform will accelerate Brazil’s economy already this year and the next. It is no coincidence that the Stock Exchange keeps breaking its own records.

 

Ricardo Amorim is the author of the best-seller After the Storm, a host of Manhattan Connection at Globonews, the most influential economist in Brazil according to Forbes Magazine, the most influential Brazilian on LinkedIn, the only Brazilian among the best world lecturers at Speakers Corner and the winner of the “Most Admired in the Economy, Business and Finance Press”.

 

Click here and view Ricardo’s lectures.

 

Follow me on: FacebookTwitterYouTube, Instagram e Medium.

 

Translation: Simone Montgomery Troula

 
 



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Quem economiza vai mais longe

postado em Artigos


07/2019

Por Ricardo Amorim

 

 

Sem novas modificações, a Reforma da Previdência aprovada pela Câmara deve gerar uma economia de cerca de R$900 bilhões nos próximos dez anos. Nas décadas seguintes, a economia cresce. Após duas décadas, ela totalizará quase R$4 trilhões. Nas décadas seguintes, continua crescendo.

 

Inicialmente, ela reduzirá o crescimento do déficit da Previdência. Somando-se União, estados, municípios e INSS, o déficit atingirá cerca de R$400 bilhões, neste ano. Sem a reforma, chegaria a R$450 bilhões, no ano que vem.

 

Com menos déficit na Previdência, menos recursos do orçamento serão direcionados para cobrir o déficit. Para bancar o déficit da Previdência, investimentos em educação pública caem desde 2013, investimentos públicos em Saúde caem desde 2015 e investimentos públicos em infraestrutura foram, no ano passado, os menores em 70 anos.

 

Ao longo do tempo, a Reforma da Previdência criará condições de reverter este quadro. Além disso, ela abre espaço para que o Brasil faça uma Reforma Tributária que simplifique nosso sistema sem ter de elevar a carga tributária, como aconteceria se não reformássemos a Previdência.

 

Não menos fundamental, a Reforma da Previdência reverterá o crescimento da dívida pública. Sem isso, o Brasil viveria uma crise fiscal e uma crise econômica ainda mais grave do que a última.

 

Com o risco de crise fiscal afastado, empresas devem tirar da gaveta planos de investimentos. Com mais investimentos, vamos gerar mais empregos, renda e crescimento econômico.

 

Muitos destes investimentos virão de fora, trazendo dólares e derrubando a cotação do dólar, o que reduzirá o preço de produtos importados, colaborando para derrubar a inflação e criando condições para os juros caírem e o crédito crescer.

 

Em resumo, além de permitir que volte a haver recursos para Saúde, Educação e Infraestrutura daqui a algum tempo, a economia gerada pela reforma fará a economia do Brasil acelerar já a partir do final deste ano e do ano que vem. Não por acaso, a Bolsa não para de bater recordes.

 

Ricardo Amorimautor do bestseller Depois da Tempestade, apresentador do Manhattan Connection da Globonews, o economista mais influente do Brasil segundo a revista Forbes, o brasileiro mais influente no LinkedInúnico brasileiro entre os melhores palestrantes mundiais do Speakers Corner, ganhador do prêmio Os + Admirados da Imprensa de Economia, Negócios e Finanças, presidente da Ricam Consultoria e cofundador da Smartrips.co e da AAA Plataforma de Inovação.

 

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Episódio #12 – Quem tem de criar as oportunidades somos nós mesmos

postado em Podcast - Economia Falada


Trechos da palestra do economista Ricardo Amorim no evento da SegHill 2019 – Think & Grow Rich.
Por que o Brasil tem um déficit público enorme e que não para de crescer, que se não resolvido vai fazer com que os serviços públicos fiquem cada vez piores, além de jogar o Brasil em uma nova crise econômica?
 

 
 



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Louis XVI on a tour in Brazil

postado em In English


06/2019

By Ricardo Amorim

 

 
I keep imagining Louis XVI, the last king of France before the French Revolution, travelling in time and popping up in Brasília today. He would feel at home. Delighted with some improvements we made to his system of government, he might even decide to live here for good.
 
To his mind, Brasília might seem like a modern version, only a little drier, of Versailles – the hub of French power in his days, to which all riches migrated, from all over France. The incapacity of local nobility to understand reality in the rest of the country would certainly seem familiar to him.
 
He would soon recognize the powerful royal family, the king’s and his offspring-princes’ hasty decisions and the joyous royal counsellors. He might find it odd that the most influential royal counsellor lived in Virginia, in the United States.
 
In Congress Louis XVI would see the court, their luxury and their faith that rules that apply to the commoners do not apply to the nobles. In public servants he would see modern aristocracy, kept by the wealth produced by the commoners but not sensitive to their sufferings.
 
Could the STF (Supreme Court) lobsters equate to the famous “cake” Marie Antoinette is alleged to have told the people to eat, since they had no bread? And what about the tens of billion reais paid annually to public servants – including pensioners – regardless of their achievements, and which are called “performance bonuses”? “Not even we ever had as much”, Louis XVI would think to himself. And what about extra allowances for housing, nurseries, jackets, books, wives, unmarried daughters and five-legged dogs? “How come we never thoughts of that??”
 
The news of the Treasury being bankrupt for excessive spending would sound familiar to Louis XVI; the decision to exclude state-level public servants from the harsh adjustment of the Social Security system, needed to prevent the country from collapsing, would seem even more familiar…
 
The French Revolution happened 230 years ago, but to tell from the behaviour of Brazilian politicians and public servants, the news hasn’t yet gotten to everyone around here. It would be wise if it did. It would be even wiser for our politicians to approve a wide and deep Social Security Reform, firmly including our “court”, our “nobles” and our “aristocracy”, before Robespierre and the diligent Doctor Guillotin decide to travel in the same time-machine.
 
Ricardo Amorim is the author of the best-seller After the Storm, a host of Manhattan Connection at Globonews, the most influential economist in Brazil according to Forbes Magazine, the most influential Brazilian on LinkedIn, the only Brazilian among the best world lecturers at Speakers Corner and the winner of the “Most Admired in the Economy, Business and Finance Press”.
 
Click here and view Ricardo’s lectures.
 
Follow me on: FacebookTwitterYouTube, Instagram e Medium.
 
Translation: Simone Montgomery Troula
 
 



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